The continuing crisis
Alot has been written and argued about the state of Bolivian politics, Im just about to add my own perspective.
Two weeks ago the Constitutional Tribunal voted to redistribute the seats within Bolivia to ensure that representation of the population was fair and even. This is constitutional and what they do every time before an election. Problem is they are basing the decision on the 2001 census, which saw an increase in migration to the department of Santa Cruz. This means that the poorer departments of La Paz, Oruro and Potosi, are actually losing seats.
The congress is currently in deadlock, debating the acceptance of the tribunals decision. The current President has threatened to resign if elections dont go ahead (cant blame him really). MAS is crying conspiracy and there is a general feeling of disillusionment amongst the people. The President did give Congress until the 8th Ocotber to make a decision, but in true Bolivian style, yesterday the Congress decided to "take a break" and not reconvene until Tuesday next week (11 Oct).
Where does this leave us? A compromise must be reached, Santa Cruz has offered to drop 2 of their 4 extra seats, and elections could be postponed until January. Either way, I think we should prepare ourselves for alot more of the same.
In other Bolivian news...the US are building a military base in Paraguay, very close to the border with Bolivia. Although they claim that it is to "intervene" in humanitarian situations, and that these areas were used (in the past) as a training ground for Al Queada terrorists (heard that before!!); we all know that if Evo wins the election the base will be used for covert actions on Bolivian soil.
The base is very close to the Bolivian gas reserves, and already the people of those communities have been occupying them. Yesterday an occupation was broken up by the military, this occupation was about building an access road so that the workers could get to their fields a little easier.
Last week a human rights protest was brutally broken up by the military. This protest was held by the families of those killed in October 2003 and their principal demands are for the US to extradite Goni on the murder charges (which he has been indicted for). The march on the US embassy was peaceful and non violent. These protests will continue every Thursday until a solution is reached. There was a solidarity protest in Cochabamba yesterday, and organisations are organising here to support the protests in La Paz.
Heres what I think. The main contenders for the Presidency are Tuto Quiroga and Evo Morales. Tuto is the US favoured candidate and was President in 2001, after Banzar resigned due to health reasons. During his term as President he ordered the repression of a number of protests, this resulted in the death of 30 or so people. We must not forget this. If Tuto wins the election we will probably see mass repression of the inevitable protests that will ensure.
Evo Morales and MAS probably wont gain the necessary votes in the departments of Santa Cruz to form a majority government, especially with the redistribution of seats. The Bolivian Electoral system is complicated. To gain the right to govern, the Presidential candidate needs to form coalitions with the diputados in the congress and senate. MAS says they will not do this, but they claim they will win outright majority. This seems unlikely, but nothing is impossible.
¿Quien sabes? Who knows what will happen here in Bolivia. I will try and keep you posted with information as it unfolds.
Two weeks ago the Constitutional Tribunal voted to redistribute the seats within Bolivia to ensure that representation of the population was fair and even. This is constitutional and what they do every time before an election. Problem is they are basing the decision on the 2001 census, which saw an increase in migration to the department of Santa Cruz. This means that the poorer departments of La Paz, Oruro and Potosi, are actually losing seats.
The congress is currently in deadlock, debating the acceptance of the tribunals decision. The current President has threatened to resign if elections dont go ahead (cant blame him really). MAS is crying conspiracy and there is a general feeling of disillusionment amongst the people. The President did give Congress until the 8th Ocotber to make a decision, but in true Bolivian style, yesterday the Congress decided to "take a break" and not reconvene until Tuesday next week (11 Oct).
Where does this leave us? A compromise must be reached, Santa Cruz has offered to drop 2 of their 4 extra seats, and elections could be postponed until January. Either way, I think we should prepare ourselves for alot more of the same.
In other Bolivian news...the US are building a military base in Paraguay, very close to the border with Bolivia. Although they claim that it is to "intervene" in humanitarian situations, and that these areas were used (in the past) as a training ground for Al Queada terrorists (heard that before!!); we all know that if Evo wins the election the base will be used for covert actions on Bolivian soil.
The base is very close to the Bolivian gas reserves, and already the people of those communities have been occupying them. Yesterday an occupation was broken up by the military, this occupation was about building an access road so that the workers could get to their fields a little easier.
Last week a human rights protest was brutally broken up by the military. This protest was held by the families of those killed in October 2003 and their principal demands are for the US to extradite Goni on the murder charges (which he has been indicted for). The march on the US embassy was peaceful and non violent. These protests will continue every Thursday until a solution is reached. There was a solidarity protest in Cochabamba yesterday, and organisations are organising here to support the protests in La Paz.
Heres what I think. The main contenders for the Presidency are Tuto Quiroga and Evo Morales. Tuto is the US favoured candidate and was President in 2001, after Banzar resigned due to health reasons. During his term as President he ordered the repression of a number of protests, this resulted in the death of 30 or so people. We must not forget this. If Tuto wins the election we will probably see mass repression of the inevitable protests that will ensure.
Evo Morales and MAS probably wont gain the necessary votes in the departments of Santa Cruz to form a majority government, especially with the redistribution of seats. The Bolivian Electoral system is complicated. To gain the right to govern, the Presidential candidate needs to form coalitions with the diputados in the congress and senate. MAS says they will not do this, but they claim they will win outright majority. This seems unlikely, but nothing is impossible.
¿Quien sabes? Who knows what will happen here in Bolivia. I will try and keep you posted with information as it unfolds.
posted by Paula Pfoeffer at
10:26 pm
